All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Valley Cross Kickoff |
Zionsville Early Bird Invite (4k) |
Marion County Championship |
Marion Invitational |
Eagle Classic |
Ben Davis Invite |
Flashrock Invitational |
Metro Interscholastic Conference |
Nike Valley Twilight Invitational |
North Central JV Invitational |
Brebeuf Jesuit Sectional |
Noblesville Regional |
Shelbyville Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/14 |
8/20 |
8/27 |
9/3 |
9/10 |
9/10 |
9/17 |
9/24 |
10/1 |
10/5 |
10/8 |
10/15 |
10/22 |
10/29 |
| Team Rating |
464 | |
451 |
413 |
455 |
575 |
475 |
|
537 |
472 |
401 |
|
488 |
528 |
|
|
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
451 |
413 |
438 |
440 |
475 |
|
490 |
468 |
401 |
|
488 |
528 |
|
|
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Valley Cross Kickoff |
Zionsville Early Bird Invite (4k) |
Marion County Championship |
Marion Invitational |
Eagle Classic |
Ben Davis Invite |
Flashrock Invitational |
Metro Interscholastic Conference |
Nike Valley Twilight Invitational |
North Central JV Invitational |
Brebeuf Jesuit Sectional |
Noblesville Regional |
Shelbyville Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| 9 |
Nate Killeen |
12 |
15:41 |
15:48 |
15:41 |
15:43 |
15:41 |
|
15:25 |
|
16:09 |
16:20 |
15:40 |
|
16:11 |
16:00 |
15:44 |
15:35 |
| 292 |
Gus Phillips |
9 |
17:16 |
|
17:10 |
17:03 |
17:14 |
17:12 |
17:28 |
|
17:06 |
17:20 |
17:03 |
|
17:28 |
17:38 |
|
|
| 333 |
Grant Hostettler |
9 |
17:23 |
|
18:04 |
17:10 |
|
17:37 |
17:10 |
|
18:14 |
17:10 |
17:02 |
|
17:22 |
17:28 |
|
|
| 393 |
Emmett Tuason |
11 |
17:30 |
17:14 |
16:56 |
17:12 |
17:19 |
17:10 |
17:50 |
|
|
|
17:25 |
|
17:50 |
17:56 |
|
|
| 428 |
Grady Hadar |
12 |
17:35 |
17:44 |
17:49 |
17:41 |
|
17:28 |
17:29 |
|
17:29 |
17:26 |
17:28 |
|
17:34 |
18:34 |
|
|
| 491 |
Owen Osterman |
11 |
17:43 |
16:35 |
|
|
|
18:50 |
17:53 |
|
18:06 |
17:33 |
18:03 |
|
17:24 |
17:25 |
|
|
| 608 |
Andrew Charbonneau |
12 |
17:54 |
17:09 |
|
18:07 |
17:29 |
17:53 |
18:02 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 668 |
Elliott DeRyke |
10 |
18:00 |
18:29 |
18:48 |
18:51 |
18:14 |
17:49 |
17:54 |
|
17:45 |
18:00 |
17:54 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 763 |
Henry Bustamante |
11 |
18:09 |
|
18:12 |
17:54 |
17:35 |
18:03 |
17:59 |
|
19:12 |
18:24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 827 |
Alec Hueftle |
11 |
18:16 |
18:57 |
17:40 |
17:44 |
17:41 |
|
|
|
|
18:38 |
19:08 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 963 |
Liell Lloyd-Hostetter |
11 |
18:26 |
19:00 |
18:54 |
19:00 |
|
19:07 |
|
18:29 |
|
18:43 |
18:20 |
|
18:02 |
18:42 |
|
|
| 1,090 |
Max Frank |
9 |
18:36 |
|
|
18:11 |
18:40 |
18:45 |
|
18:21 |
18:34 |
|
18:57 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Justin Kelly |
11 |
19:00 |
18:30 |
18:39 |
18:45 |
18:59 |
19:40 |
|
19:13 |
19:11 |
18:57 |
|
18:49 |
|
|
|
|
|
Chris Arnold |
10 |
19:03 |
|
|
19:11 |
|
18:48 |
|
|
|
19:23 |
|
18:55 |
|
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Semi-State |
7.7% |
9.4 |
280 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.5 |
1.5 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100.0% |
6.7 |
166 |
|
|
0.0 |
1.4 |
6.3 |
16.6 |
70.6 |
4.9 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
3.0 |
82 |
0.0 |
7.1 |
85.7 |
7.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Nate Killeen |
99.9% |
12.1 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
4.4 |
5.0 |
6.1 |
5.2 |
5.4 |
5.3 |
5.2 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
3.8 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
2.7 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
99.9% |
99.9% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Nate Killeen |
100% |
7.4 |
0.2 |
1.3 |
4.5 |
9.4 |
10.9 |
10.3 |
10.3 |
8.7 |
8.0 |
6.6 |
6.0 |
4.4 |
4.2 |
3.2 |
3.0 |
2.2 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Gus Phillips |
19.4% |
80.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12.7% |
13.2% |
| Grant Hostettler |
11.2% |
84.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.8% |
4.1% |
| Emmett Tuason |
8.1% |
92.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.5% |
0.6% |
| Grady Hadar |
7.8% |
98.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
| Owen Osterman |
7.7% |
108.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Andrew Charbonneau |
7.7% |
123.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Nate Killeen |
100% |
5.1 |
0.2 |
1.7 |
6.3 |
18.8 |
21.7 |
18.1 |
15.1 |
9.7 |
4.4 |
2.1 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Gus Phillips |
100% |
39.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Grant Hostettler |
100% |
43.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Emmett Tuason |
100% |
48.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Grady Hadar |
100.0% |
51.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
100.0% |
| Owen Osterman |
100.0% |
56.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
99.8% |
| Andrew Charbonneau |
100.0% |
63.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
98.4% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Nate Killeen |
2.1 |
5.6 |
38.5 |
54.4 |
1.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Gus Phillips |
15.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
1.4 |
4.5 |
13.8 |
16.8 |
15.5 |
13.1 |
11.0 |
7.5 |
5.3 |
3.6 |
2.2 |
1.7 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
| Grant Hostettler |
17.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
1.3 |
4.5 |
9.4 |
11.5 |
13.6 |
12.7 |
10.8 |
9.7 |
7.1 |
5.8 |
4.2 |
3.0 |
2.0 |
| Emmett Tuason |
20.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
2.0 |
4.2 |
6.3 |
8.8 |
9.4 |
10.8 |
10.7 |
9.5 |
8.2 |
7.1 |
5.7 |
| Grady Hadar |
22.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.6 |
2.9 |
4.3 |
6.2 |
8.0 |
8.6 |
9.7 |
9.6 |
9.2 |
8.1 |
| Owen Osterman |
26.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
4.1 |
5.2 |
6.9 |
8.4 |
8.4 |
| Andrew Charbonneau |
31.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
2.1 |
3.2 |
|
